The Mousetrap is a murder mystery play by Agatha Christie. The Mousetrap opened in London’s West End in 1952 and ran continuously until 16 March 2020 when it was overcome by Covid-19.
Politics in Afghanistan is a lot like these long-running (London) West-end productions; the cast changes periodically but the play remains the same. So it is that we are going to witness the exit of the American forces from the country in a few months much like the Russians did two decades ago. There are differences of course. While the Russians left in somewhat of a hurry as the Mujahideen turned up the heat on them, the Americans would like to give the impression that they are withdrawing according to a prearranged schedule, first inked by President Trump and modified by President Biden. So we’re unlikely to see the spectacle of American war machine strewn all over the country in bits and pieces as in the case of Russians.
(the author reclining on an abandoned Russian armoured vehicle; could this be symbolic of victory over Russia?)
But the thunder and lightning talk of the Bush era as the American jets flew into Kabul in the wake of 9/11 has been quietly forgotten in the light of assurances made during 2016 U.S. presidential elections that Trump would bring the boys home. Now this is certainly good for American homes and it did make it possible for the President Trump to check an item in his ‘to do’ list but what does it do to the common Afghan people? Precious little. In fact to adapt a phrase from the Bible “the latter state of the people will be worse than the former.” Yes, the Afghan people are all set to slither down and be swallowed by a deadly serpent as in a game of ‘snakes and ladders’
When I was visiting a ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross) rehabilitation centre in Kabul several years ago, Alberto Cairo the physiotherapist pioneer of that establishment called for tea. When it arrived, the sensitive soul of mine protested against the gory scene presenting itself. Where the hands should have been, the bearer of the tray had two hooks sticking out from stumps. Alberto explained that both his hands were chopped off by the Taliban; possibly for some petty thievery.
Personally, I was involved in a project that provided mobility to the mine wounded, under the Afghan Ministry of Martyrs and Disabled. Coming across people who have had their limbs blown off in a land mine is a common sight in Kabul.
With one of the highest concentration of land mines in the world (estimated at over 600,000 since 1979), Afghanistan clumps along on crutches, a metaphor also for its government which is so heavily dependent on foreign aid for budgetary outlay. If Italy could once be called the ‘sick man of Europe’, Afghanistan well deserves the appellation ‘South Asia’s permanent battle field’. And it is not always conventional warfare, with two armies meeting in a quest for supremacy. What makes daily life so uncertain in the country are the unexpected rocket fire, the unsuspected IED and the calamitous car bombs.
This author himself narrowly escaped a suicide bomb attack in Kabul. Sitting one day in one of the two internet centres preferred by him , news flashed that the other was invaded by a bomber and several people lost their lives.
Afghanistan is basically a country difficult to rule. As William Dalrymple says in his epochal novel ‘Return of a King’, “there are different tribal, ethnic, and linguistic fissures fragmenting Afghan society: the rivalry between the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and the Durrani and Ghilzai Pashtuns; the schism between Sunni and Shia; the endemic factionalism within clans and tribes……….in many places blood feuds became almost a national pastime – the Afghan equivalent of country cricket in English shires.” If that was true in 19th century Afghanistan that Dalrymple was mostly concerned with in his historical novel, it is just as true today, and one fears the picture will never ever change.
Russia under the Tzar and later the Soviet Union always had Afghanistan in their radar. The Tzar was engaged in a see-saw game of influence against the British; the situation became favourable to the Soviet Union under the Brezhnev Doctrine when the communist party came to power in Kabul in the late 1970s. The army of the Soviet Union marched into Kabul in 1979. This of course became a geo-political event of global significance with the United States opposing it tooth and claw and rallying the U.N. in this cause. This was also the time the Mujahideen took birth with some midwifery from the Americans and became a thorn in the flesh of the Soviets. This movement later gave rise to the emergence of the Taliban who fought alongside the Mujahideen against the Soviets and later became a dominant force themselves.
So, enter the Taliban and the picture becomes complicated. With its unique brand of Sunni fundamentalism and harsh interpretation of Sharia, the Taliban rose to power in 1996 and established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. When they first appeared on the scene, they were indeed welcomed by Afghans, weary of the Mujahideen’s excesses and constant infighting. The Taliban too earned some credit in the initial days by undertaking popular measures like stamping out corruption and curbing lawlessness.
By and by, their true colour began to show when their agenda emerged in all its ugliness. The football stadium in Kabul turned into a public execution arena of convicted murderers and adulterers; those found guilty of theft had their hands amputated. Men were required to grow beards and it had to be of certain specified length; women had to wear the all-covering burka.
The Taliban came down heavily on all forms of entertainment, banning television, music and cinema. One standing example of their cultural genocide is the notorious destruction of the world famous Bamiyan Buddha statues in central Afghanistan; the world stood aghast.
They also had their own views on women’s education and disapproved of girls aged 10 and over going to school. Even in exile in Pakistan, the Taliban tried to impose some of these restrictions and we all know the triumphant story of the young Malala Yousafzai who went on to win the Nobel Prize.
There is no doubt the spectre of the tens of thousands massacred by the Taliban and their atrocities against civil society and women in particular will haunt the minds of the 32 million Afghans as they contemplate the possibility of the dreaded movement returning to power. With the planned withdrawal of the American forces together with the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force), it is only a matter of time before the emasculated Afghan government gives up the ghost. We will do well to remember that even before the ink was dry on the Doha Deal in 2020, there was a deadly bomb blast in Kabul in a meeting where the CEO Abdullah Abdullah was present.
It is interesting that the responsibility for that attack was claimed by IS, a new actor in the Kabul valley. If this is really proven, the Taliban have a job on their hands, for the assurances they gave the Americans include keeping Al–Qaeda and the like from Afghan soil. To be sure, It is also possible that the Americans merely wanted some kind of face saving salve to place before their public and the international media, to balance out the momentous decision to withdraw their forces. For, could the Americans be so naïve as to take the Taliban at their word? Again one might argue that having the Taliban in the country is bad enough; one really does not need Al–Qaeda and IS to go on a slaughtering spree.
However ineffective the Americans have been in nullifying the Taliban’s role in Afghan life, it must be said that their presence and that of the ISAF, brought a great deal of security to the country. Their humvees and other military vehicles running through the streets of Kabul, reassured the common man that some protection is available and he can go about his daily business.
Once when this writer was taking a walk in the central park in Kabul, a rocket came whizzing down about 150 m away. It was only a matter of minutes before the American soldiers arrived and surrounded the area. The fact that they had their base in Bagram, just north of Kabul was a huge comfort to the Kabulis. Needless to say, the Karzai administration would not have survived as long as it did, but for the U.S. support. This was not dissimilar to the way the USSR propped up Babrak Karmal in an earlier era. Indians of that generation would also remember Dr.Najibullah who met his end in the streets of Kabul when he was lynched for the sin of his close association with by then detested Russians.
No essay on Afghanistan’s recent history would be complete without a mention of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the closest thing to a nationalist leader that the tribe oriented multiple factions in Afganisthan ever had. He was part of the Mujahideen who fought the Russians but he rejected the Taliban’s fundamentalist interpretation of Islam and opposed them when they captured Kabul. Returning to the armed opposition, he became the military and political leader of the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan or Northern Alliance. Massoud visited Europe and in high-level meetings with the European Parliament urged leaders to pressure Pakistan to drop its support to the Taliban. He also asked for humanitarian aid to help the people’s gruesome conditions under the Taliban. Massoud was assassinated at the instigation of Al-Qaeda and Taliban in a suicide bombing on September 9, 2001.
That brings us to the role of Pakistan in this sizzling theatre of war and intrigue. There is a view that there are no winners in the successive wars in Afghanistan. But there was: Pakistan. It appears Pakistan has mastered the art of “running with the hare and hunting with the hounds”. Well, with some very clever foot work they’ve leveraged their geopolitical situation to their greatest advantage over the years. First, it was the Soviet Union arriving at their door step. And being friends of Americans, they got most everything they wanted in terms of military hardware and economic assistance in order to prevent the Russians from swamping their country and linking up with a Soviet friendly India. That the Afghans were fiercely resisting the Soviet presence helped in the process and the Mujahideen elements were nursed across the border.
Worried at the arrival of communism in their back yard, knots of Arab warriors sponsored by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, assembled in Pakistan and began irritating the Soviets. Uncle Sam was sitting back and was quite enjoying the discomfiture of the Russians, even as he was bankrolling the resistance with a benign ‘Buddha’ like smile on his face. Now the world knows that it was in these happy circumstances that Osama was born and was eagerly cradled by Pakistan only to eventually grow into America’s Frankenstein’s monster.
Ah…India. India’s involvement in the Afghan imbroglio has always been ambivalent. Traditionally a Russian supporter, India was one of the few countries to vote against the U.N. resolution condemning USSR’s intervention in Afghanistan. In fact it looked upon Najibullah with favour ( his family took shelter in India during that tumultuous period) and thereafter quite didn’t know where to turn when 9/11 happened. The Taliban of course treated India as no friend of theirs owing to India’s friendship with Russia.
But when the writer stayed in Afghanistan, he found that the people of the country fairly well disposed towards India. This of course was a relative phenomenon viz-a-viz Pakistan which the Afghans always viewed with suspicion. Later, India felt obliged to participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan during the Karzai regime (Karzai had his education in India and connections with the country’s leadership). It sent the BSF to western Afghnaistan and was involved in some power projects as well. All this is nowhere near the status of the country as an emerging regional power but in all its external dealings India has always felt the need to seem equidistant from the superpowers. It is in this context that it becomes interesting to find out what exactly India was doing at the Doha summit between the U.S. and the Taliban, which strangely left the ‘democratic’ Afghan government in the cold.
What will be the future of the country with the Taliban poised to regain control over the country. Will we witness another round of stadium beheadings of the notable figures in the Afghan government? Will all the girls’ schools be closed again? Will all the cinemas and entertainment houses pull down the shutters? Will the 2000 odd rehabilitation agencies and NGOs pack up and go home? Will all the guest houses accommodating international workers and the star hotels close down? Will the number of destitute bharka clad women on the streets shoot up? In short, will the country go back to hell?
Questions, questions but no clear answers as yet. Already the women’s organizations in the country are sounding alarm. Others too must be bracing themselves for an uncertain future. Millions will migrate to Pakistan and Iran and live yet again as refugees, till another saviour comes along. Will it be America again burdening itself with the self-imposed title of ‘global policeman’? Or will the international community rise as one man to alleviate the recurring misery of the Afghan people?
At any rate in longevity, the Afghan drama bids fair to overtake the long running : “The Mouse Trap”.
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